GOP Presidential Race: Is Fred Thompson for Real?

This article written by Richard Sammon appeared at the Kiplinger Business Center site.

It's late and it won't be easy, but the stars may be aligned for the actor to have a serious run at the White House.

Fred Thompson is nearly ready to run for president, a prospect that would change the 2008 presidential race overnight. Revealing earlier this month that he has lymphoma in remission was a preparatory move, lowering the risk that the health issue might derail the campaign. His visit with Republican lawmakers this week to hear their thoughts on his running was also an indication that he is seriously inclined.

Republicans are already enthused about Thompson, an actor-turned-senator-turned-actor, who is better known to Americans than most other candidates. Speculation and media interest are keeping his star on the rise. He's running second in GOP polls, just behind ex-New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani and ahead of Arizona Sen. John McCain. It's an enviable position to be in, considering he has done essentially no campaigning or fund-raising.

Sure, some of that is due to name recognition from years in movies and on TV in macho roles, but it's also a reflection of the fact that 60% of Republicans say nobody else in the presidential race is really grabbing them. Still, a run won't be easy. Thompson is late to the money chase. His voting record representing Tennessee in the Senate from 1994 through 2002 won't please all Republicans, particularly his support of the McCain-Feingold campaign finance legislation that banned large soft money donations to the national parties. He'd have to deal with much wider media scrutiny if he ran, too, as well as negative opposition research from other candidates. Also, others may jump in: Former House Speaker Newt Gingrich of Georgia and Sen. Chuck Hagel of Nebraska will wait until fall to decide whether to run.

Raising money would be the chief initial concern for Thompson. Close to $100 million is needed to be considered a credible national candidate in preparation for the front-packed primaries early next year. Thompson would have to score very well in the earliest tests in Iowa, New Hampshire and South Carolina, and that requires organization. Internet fund-raising would be critical to his campaign at first, allowing him to show broad appeal and to rise to the money level of other major candidates in the Republican race who have been raising, but also spending, for months now. A few single mega fund-raisers could also put him right in contention and possibly strip support from McCain, Giuliani and former Mass. Gov. Mitt Romney in the process.

Unlike McCain, Thompson is not inextricably linked to the war in Iraq. That could help with Republicans who have grown frustrated with the Bush administration's war policy. He also has a generally conservative voting record that appeals to many Republicans who question the conservative credentials of the other top candidates. Hailing from the South is also a plus, as it has been in many modern presidential campaigns.

A Thompson brain trust? For a campaign, at least, he would be able to assemble a formidable and well-connected team, including former Senate Majority Leaders Howard Baker and Bill Frist and Sen. Lamar Alexander, all from Tennessee, as well as Tennessee GOP Reps. Zach Wamp and John Duncan, both of whom have been working on a draft Thompson publicity campaign.

A decision by Thompson could come in a few weeks. He has several speaking engagements to Republican groups coming up in early May. These events are possibly the perfect opportunities for an announcement tour.

Fred Thompson Video

I found another video on YouTube about Fred Thompson!

Fox News Analysis of FDT

Run Fred, Run...Now!

Dick Morris and Eileen McGann published the following article about Fred Thompson this week:

For everything there is a season and a time to every purpose under heaven -- even a time to declare one's presidential candidacy. And, for Fred Thompson, the time is now!

Momentum has been building for Thompson in the past six weeks. If he announces his presidency run in the next few weeks, he will coast easily into a berth in the Republican finals against Rudy Giuliani. But if he delays — as he shows signs of wanting to do -- he will miss the boat.

For many candidates, delay means that they don't have to stand out and be targets until later in the game. But for Thompson, delay could be fatal. The major negative against the former Tennessee senator is that he lacks the heart or the fire in the belly to compete and win. With Hillary Clinton looming as the expected Democratic nominee, victory is of surpassing importance to the Republican primary electorate. Republicans will not nominate someone who they think is ambivalent about running.

During his Senate tenure, Thompson's work habits were suspect. The New York Times recently (gently) noted that he was not known as one of the hardest working senators. The very fact that he left the Senate after only eight years in office raised suspicions that he was distracted by the allure of Hollywood and the joys of private life. Too long a delay in announcing his candidacy could fuel such speculation and create a negative that need not exist for the actor turned politician turned actor.

On paper, Fred Thompson looks like a nominee from, well, central casting. Invoking the legacy of Ronald Reagan, his communications skills hearken back to the era when the GOP right had a president so fluid, silken voiced and articulate that it could advance its agenda without compromise and still prevail. With Rudy Giuliani threatening to resurrect Rockefeller Republicanism in a modern incarnation, Thompson offers a refuge for pro-life, pro-gun, anti-gay Republicans.

The recent Supreme Court decision upholding Congressional legislation banning partial birth abortion and the tragic shooting at Virginia Tech will both ignite demands on the left for an aggressive drive to protect Roe v. Wade, and to legislate tougher gun controls. This Democratic offensive puts Rudy Giuliani in the middle and could erode support for his candidacy. On the other hand, it could fire the ranks of true believers and lead them to rally around a Fred Thompson candidacy.

To read the compete article.

South Carolina Republicans

This this exerpt is from the The State on April 1st. It is important because South Carolina is an early primary state and one that Fred Thompson will need to win to become president.

South Carolina Republicans are in a funk.

Nothing seems to be going right.

Check the list.

They’re displeased with President Bush, disturbed by developments in Iraq and hacked off at congressional Republicans for spending
taxpayers’ money like a “drunken sailor.” Moreover, they’re unhappy with their choices for president, causing some to start shopping around for an alternative.

Enter former U.S. Sen. Fred Thompson, R-Tenn., whose name has popped up at several GOP precinct meetings over the past couple of weeks. At a recent Horry County gathering, Thompson won a straw poll, handily beating all of the announced candidates. “He won big time,” said Horry County Auditor Lois Eargle, earlier a John McCain supporter.

A USA Today/Gallup poll placed Thompson third nationally behind former New York Mayor Rudy Giuliani and McCain, the U.S. senator from Arizona. Francis Marion University political scientist Neal Thigpen said Thompson’s name was mentioned by several folks at a precinct
meeting in Florence.

“Republicans are not happy with their choices in any way, shape or fashion,” Thigpen said. “The party is in need of someone with glamour, someone who sparkles, someone who could put it together for Republicans.

Read the full article at http://www.thestate.com/169/story/23955.html.

NY Sun Politics

Here is an interesting quote by the NY Sun Politics:

Still, Fred Thompson remains the wild card. The more polls that stack up, the clearer it is that he cuts significantly into Mr. Giuliani's support.

He also negates the logic behind the Romney candidacy, but Mitt doesn't have far to fall.

No comment really necessary.

Thompson Confuses the Media

USA TODAY reports what we in Tennessee have always known:

Fred Thompson is "not a hard-core ideologue:"

Archives at the University of Tennessee offer a clue to what kind of president former senator Fred Thompson might be if he decides to join the group of Republicans seeking the White House. When surveyed by Republican leaders in 1997 about what issues he wanted to push, Thompson, "skipped over abortion, flag burning and other hot-button conservative favorites. His bold check marks sought a reformist litany: a balanced budget, term limits for Congress, campaign-finance restrictions and tax-code simplification. Even changing the federal budget to a two-year document ranked in Thompson's top 10. 'He is not a hard-core ideologue,' said Rep. Zach Wamp, R-Tenn., who began a draft-Thompson effort in March. 'He transcends ideology.' "

The liberal press is confused by Fred. Fred is a man who again and again sides with a Federalist constitutional interpretation. This puts him on "wrong" side of the issues with liberals and conservatives.

Senator Bob Corker Quote

The NY Times stated the following quote from Bob about the possibility of Thompson running:

"Seven weeks ago, I would have put it [Thompson Running for President] very low,” Senator Bob Corker said of the odds of a Thompson bid. "Four weeks ago,
when I talked on the phone to both he and his wife, I would have put it at
50-50. “Last Wednesday, I talked to them both again on the phone, and I have
to tell you I think he is very interested. I think he is at the 75- to 80-percent level at this point. I really do."

Fred Meets with Congress

Today, Fred Thompson met with 53 Republican congressmen on Capital Hill. Rep. Zach Wamp,R-Chattanooga, says that they had expected 40 members and were pleased with the turn out. Also five of the top members of the Republican leadership were in attendance.

Sen. Thompson answered questions for the members including ones about his first marriage and subsequent divorce. Thompson told them he had married young — at age 17 — and loved his wife, and they had three children. While they divorced, they remained friends and still are friends. Thompson was divorced for a more than fifteen years, and eventually married, Jeri Kehn. They married in 2002 and now have two small children. This meeting is considered by many to be the final steps, before he announces his candidacy for the presidency.

Those in the meeting said, Thompson spoke for about a half hour about his personal and political background and then answered questions on a variety of policy issues including national security and immigration.

More to come on this issue...

Cavuto on Thompson

Fox Show host Cavuto might have made the most interesting observation of Thompson to date.

“It's a little thing, said Cavuto… but it struck me and my executive producer Gary Schreier as we greeted him this week: He came alone. Alone — no handlers, no enablers, no key people, no any people. Just Fred, by himself. And Gary and I are thinking, hey this guy is tracking sometimes second in GOP polls for president.

For president! Of the United States!! And we're looking for his entourage, his hangers-on, you know, the guy who holds his briefcase. Another, his cell phone, still another, his coat. Someone who polices his words, advises him on statements to the press. Nope. No briefcase guy. Or cell phone dude. No policy wonk or statement checker. No people at all.

Get this: I had more people than he had people. Which tells you something about Fred, I guess: The image things that seem to matter to others don't much matter to Fred. Surely, I'm thinking to myself, this will all change if he runs for president. Even the loserest of candidates has loser lemmings. Lots of them!

But I wonder: Maybe Fred would be the guy who puts less stock in handlers and more in himself. He'd be different, that's for sure. His people weren't saying that — Fred was. Before he shook my hand after our interview and walked out of this building... alone.”

The people wanted to shake things up… and that they have, in spades! However, not without a clear purpose - which they obviously have as well.

Thompson is expected to formally announce in May or June.

Run Fred Run!

Cal Thomas resently wrote in one of his columns about Fred Thompson.

He has Ronald Reagan's communication skills and speaks plainly in ways most people can understand. Anyone who has listened to him substitute for Paul Harvey on ABC News Radio senses that, in this, he follows in Reagan's footsteps. Radio is an intimate medium. People who are able to connect with a radio audience often can connect on TV and in person. Thompson, the actor, plays other people. On radio and in news interviews, he "plays" himself.
There's something else to like about Fred Thompson. He doesn't appear to be lusting after the job as if he needs it for his self-image. This, too, is much like Reagan, who knew who he was before becoming president and was the same after he left office.
It is said of Thompson that he has always "answered the call" of his country, whether it was serving as minority counsel to the Senate Watergate Committee, or in other capacities, including United States senator.
Some political "experts" think it is almost too late for any new candidate to announce for president. Former House Speaker Newt Gingrich says he intends to wait until September before saying if he will run. Actually, waiting might be the best strategy for these Republicans. Conservative Republicans are restless about what they regard as a weak field. They want someone who can take on Hillary Clinton or Barack Obama and win.

Run Fred Run

Myth No #1: Thompson Can’t Raise Enough Money

Anti-Fred Thompson Myths
There is a lot of misinformation in the blogosphere about Fred Thompson. Over the next couple of weeks, I will try to systematically to confront these myths with facts and reason.

Myth No #1: Fred Thompson Can’t Raise Enough Money
Myth No. 1 : Fred Thompson is too late to raise enough money to compete with the GOP frontrunners has been making the rounds in the blogosphere. Let’s examine the facts from the first quarter campaign finance reports (Money Raised & Expenses for Jan-Mar 2007).

First, Romney has raised the most money ($23M), but he spent the most ($12M) and has the most debt ($2.3M). He has been trying to break out of the single digits to catch John McCain. Polls show he is supported by only 3-12% of the GOP.

McCain's presidential campaign raised $13M and burned $8 million during the first three months of 2007, leaving only $5.2 million in the bank. McCain peaked last fall and support has been steadily eroding since November.

By contrast, former New York mayor Rudolph W. Giuliani reported cash on hand of $12M after spending 6M. Giuliani’s support is generally report ed in the high 20s and low 30s.

Fred Thompson has spent $0 and polls place his support between 10-15%. The real question becomes, how long will Fred need to raise the money to catch them. At the current rates of spending, McCain and Romney will be nearly out of money by the end of June. It is my opinion that current rates of spending are unsustainable by McCain & Romney. Their financial edge is gone. Giuliani has a serious lead in money and seems to be planning expenditures well. Normally it is the amount of funds available that determine name recognition. Fred already has a built in base of name recognition and a larger base that will recognize his face.

The next questions are “When will Thompson get into the race?” and “How long will Romney, McCain and Gingrich hang on?”.

New TIME poll

A new TIME poll, conducted by SRBI Inc., finds

While some Republicans have pinned their hopes on the fresh face of Mitt Romney, he's too fresh for most voters to have an opinion about him — though they have at least heard of him. In January, 58% said they had never even heard his name; that's down to just 23%. No doubt, however, he has some more introductions to make: 11% of respondents say they know "a great deal" about Romney, 28% know "some." More good news for Romney: those who do know him find him "likeable" (49% say it accurately describes him) and believe he is "a true conservative on family values" (39%), a victory for a campaign that's been struggling with the perception that the former governor is a late comer to those views.

This poll ignored Fred...hmm

New Poll Puts Thompson Solidly in Second Place

The Los Angeles Times/Bloomberg poll contacted 1,373 adults nationwide by telephone April 5- 9. There were several interesting findings in this poll. The report on the poll laminents the fall of John McCain and John Edwards in the poll. The poll also noticed that Fred Thompon is finding traction amoung Reagan conservatives.

The poll quotes some of the poll respondants.

"Thompson is a Reagan conservative, and that's what I want," said Robert Little,
a poll respondent in Duluth, Ga., who views other leading Republican candidates
as unreliable allies on social issues.

Giuliani …...............................29%
F. Thompson …......................15%
McCain …...............................12%
Romney …...............................8%
Gingrich.…...............................7%
Huckabee ….............................3%
T. Thompson …........................3%
Brownback …............................2%
Hunter …..................................2%
Tancredo ..................................2%
Someone else/ Don't know......17%

Giuliani is still down after Thompson's announcement that he was considering entry into the race. Romney and Gingrich are stuck in the single digits.

Commentary: Get The Buzz: Fred Thompson

Last month Former Tennessee Senator Fred Thompson stated in an interview with Chris Wallace that he is considering running for president. Since then Thompson has generated much interest among conservatives. Today, the The Washington Post reported that Thompson, “catapulted into the top tier of Republican presidential nomination hopefuls on the basis of a single TV interview a month ago.” In the same article, Iowa Republican Party Executive Director Chuck Laudner lauded Thompson as, “the biggest buzz in the state.”

Yesterday, The Tennessian indicated that 45 percent of Republican voters preferred Thompson to the other Republican presidential hopefuls. Matt Towery of InsiderAdvantage said, “What's surprising is his lead over possible opponents and the magnitude of support for a man who has only hinted at a run.” In this poll Rudy Giuliani received 15 percent; Newt Gingrich received 11 percent, followed by Senator John McCain at 10 percent.

Earlier this week, Robert Novak reported that Fred Thompson may be one step closer to becoming a presidential candidate after Congress returns from their Easter recess on April 18. He plans to meet privately with a large number of Republican members of the House. Novak indicated that many Republican member of the House backed Romney after former Speaker Dennis Hastert endorsed him. However, Romney is rapidly loosing support and many of Congressmen are now looking to support another candidate such as Fred Thompson.

Thompson announced today that he is suffering from cancer. The diagnosis was two years ago. He was not telling us to send him get-well-soon cards. He was telling us that he is getting ready to run for president and wanted to clear the decks before announcing it.

--CB

Fred Thompson Announces he has Cancer

The following is a statement from Thompson read on ABC News Radio today:

We have all seen the courageous battle that Elizabeth and John Edwards are fighting, and there are so many others. Fortunately, there are an increasing number of good stories because of the medical advances that have been made.

I have friends in politics, some in Congress, some running for President, and others who have successfully dealt with cancer. It is certainly no respecter of persons and totally non-partisan.That point was driven home to me about 2 1/2 years ago when, shortly after a routine physical, I was diagnosed with what the doctors call an indolent lymphoma. Of the 30-plus kinds of lymphoma this is a "good" kind, if there is such a thing. I have had no illness from it, or even any symptoms.

My life expectancy should not be affected. I am in remission, and it is very treatable with drugs if treatment is needed in the future—and with no debilitating side effects. "I am one of the lucky ones. There are many lucky ones today. And for all of our diversity, we share one thing in common—a deep appreciation for the fact that we live in the United States of America and have the best medicine and the best doctors the world has even known."

Ok, here are my thoughts: 1) This announcement is strong evidence that Fred Thompson is running for the Presidency. He is handling this issue before he announces. 2) I suspect he'll wait a couple of weeks for the media to explain the disease, and he will enter the race with this issue off limits. 3) This diagnois is 2 1/2 years old! If Fred Thompson was not running for president this would have been the reason for his withdrawal from consideration.

Fred Thompson is Running for President!

Fred Thompson stirs up conservative buzz

The Washington Post states that Fred Thompson's interest in the 2008 presidential race is generating enthusiasm among many Republicans, despite some conservative criticism of the "Law & Order" star's record. "He's the biggest buzz in the state," said Iowa Republican Party Executive Director Chuck Laudner. "A lot of our people want to see him come here. They see him with star power equivalent to [former New York Mayor] Rudy Giuliani, but he's conservative." In Dallas, conservative policy analyst Merrill Matthews said Mr. Thompson's name is on the lips of just about every conservative with whom he talks. (4/11/7)

Fred Thompson Leads Poll in Tennessee

The Tennessian reports that in a poll of 600 Republicans Fred Thompson is by far the most popular presidential candidate among Tennessee Republican voters, with 45 percent of those surveyed making him their top choice. The margin of error in the poll is 3% and was conducted March 31-April 1. Guiliani got 15%, Gingrich 11% and McCain 10%.

GOP Leadership Moving to back Thompson

Robert Novak reports that Fred Thompson’s progress toward becoming a Republican presidential candidate will take a step with the return of Congress from its Easter break when he meets privately with a large group of Republican House members. They had been moving toward support of former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney, led by former Speaker Dennis Hastert’s endorsement of Romney. But many have stepped back from Romney and are looking hard at Thompson. One member of the GOP leadership who had been prepared to endorse Romney is holding his fire while he considers Thompson.

Chattanooga Times Free Press Endorses Fred

Fred Thompson has not yet said if he is a presidential candidate, but a Chattanooga editorial page has joined a "draft Fred" movement with an endorsement of the actor and attorney 19 months before the election.

Fred Picks up Another Endorsement

Thompson has picked up endorsements from Missouri's state speaker Carl Bearden (R) and Lt. Gov. Peter Kinder (R), who are breaking from the state's political establishment. Gov. Matt Blunt (R) and former Sen. Jim Talent (R) have both endorsed Romney. Kinder becomes the first statewide official anywhere to endorse Thompson.